If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, global buyers would unload US dollars once needed for oil, driving the dollar down by as much as 7% and raising import costs. At the same time, investors are bypassing US Treasuries via FX swaps and issuing foreign-currency bonds, eroding the dollar’s unique “convenience” premium.

• If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, fading demand for dollars to buy oil could push the DXY toward 91, making imports roughly 7% pricier.
• Treasury bonds have lost their unique "convenience premium" since 2008, as investors now replicate dollar exposure via FX swaps instead of buying Treasuries.
• U.S. companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google are issuing foreign-currency bonds (euro, pound) because they can't compete with Treasury yields, signaling weakening dollar/Treasury demand.
• A reopened Hormuz could act as the trigger that finally lets the dollar's value fall in line with declining Treasury yields.

Q1 2026 venture funding hit a record $300 billion, driven by four AI mega-deals yet supported by growth in early-stage and seed rounds. The charts also highlight construction’s long-term productivity stagnation, rising jet fuel and airfare risks, the coming AI inference infrastructure boom, and fertilizer supply shocks from Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

• Q1 2026 venture funding hit a record $300B, with AI mega-deals (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Waymo) making up $188B, yet even excluding them the quarter would still be a record ~$112B
• US construction productivity has barely improved since 1950 while overall economic productivity tripled, leaving a $2T sector ripe for prefab/robotics/AI disruption
• Strait of Hormuz disruptions have nearly doubled jet fuel prices since February, threatening airlines with ~$5.8B in added costs and setting up steeper summer airfares
• The same Strait of Hormuz tensions are choking nitrogen fertilizer and LNG shipments (25%+ of global nitrogen, 20% of LNG), pushing urea prices toward 2022 highs and risking global food-price inflation

This article outlines the global energy crisis caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for oil and gas shipments. It details the economic implications for various industries and the challenges faced by countries reliant on Middle Eastern energy supplies. The piece also discusses the limited alternatives available and the potential for severe shortages.

• Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from the usual 50-60 daily crossings to just 17-18, signaling a major disruption to global energy flows.
• Saudi Arabia is the only country with a real workaround—its East-West pipeline—while others like Kuwait and Qatar have almost no alternative export capacity.
• The crisis threatens deep, specific dependencies: 400 million people in India rely on LPG for cooking, and Taiwan depends on Qatari LNG for a significant share of its power.
• Lack of transparency about what's actually happening in the Strait is fueling uncertainty about how severe and prolonged the shortages could become.